The recent adjustment in the Bitcoin market has triggered in-depth analysis. As of August 12, 2025, the price of btc has dropped from its historical high of $69,044 to $56,800, a decline of 17.7%. However, on-chain data indicates that the key support level has not yet failed. Glassnode monitoring shows that the $55,000- $58,000 range is home to a holding cost base of 12.4 million BTC (accounting for 65% of the circulating volume), among which institutional investors’ increase in holdings through spot ETFs accounts for 60% of the monthly net inflow. Just the BlackRock IBIT product alone saw a weekly inflow of $240 million. Form a strong psychological defense line. In terms of historical patterns, during the halving periods of 2020 and 2016, the average duration of similar magnitude pullback was 21 days, and the probability of resuming an upward trend exceeded 78%. This adjustment has now entered its 15th day, and the 30-day volatility has narrowed from a peak of 65% to 28%, suggesting that the bottoming-out stage is approaching its end.
Macroeconomic pressure constitutes short-term resistance. With the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at a high of 5.5%, the US dollar index has climbed to a nearly two-year high of 108.2, suppressing the valuation of risky assets. Bloomberg statistics show that the 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index is 0.73. If technology stocks continue to come under pressure due to the decline in corporate earnings growth (the average growth rate in Q2 dropped from 18% to 7%), BTC/USD may test the support level of $50,000, which is equivalent to another 12% decline in the current price. However, the opposite indicator has emerged: The Crypto Fear & Greed index has dropped to the “extreme fear” zone of 28, while historical data confirms that holding in this zone for one year has achieved a positive return rate of up to 95%, with an average return of 127%.
On-chain activities verify the resilience of the fundamentals. Despite the pullback in btc prices, the network hash rate remains at a historically high 780 EH/s, indicating that miners’ capital expenditures have not been reduced. The daily selling pressure of miners has dropped to 300-500 BTC (accounting for 20% of the daily output), far lower than the peak of 1,200 during the bear market in 2022. Moreover, the computing power derivatives market indicates that the contract premium rate will remain at 8% over the next six months, demonstrating that infrastructure operators are confident about the medium-term recovery. Meanwhile, the proportion of BTC balance on exchanges has dropped to a five-year low of 11.8% of the circulating supply. Approximately 89.3% of the circulating supply is in an “inactive state” (held for more than six months), reducing the risk of short-term selling by 40%.
Technological innovation and regulatory breakthroughs provide catalysts for recovery. The on-chain TVL of Bitcoin Layer 2 solutions such as Stacks has exceeded 2.8 billion US dollars, with an annual growth rate of 400%, supporting DeFi applications to enhance network utility. The US SEC has accelerated the review of new Bitcoin spot ETF applications, and experts predict that the approval rate will rise to 65%. Looking back at the case, the price of the Bitcoin ETF rose by 122% within 90 days after its approval in January 2024. If the new proposal is approved, this effect may be repeated. Furthermore, on-chain derivatives data indicates that the median target for the btc price bet by the options market at the end of 2025 is $85,000. The ratio of open interest in put options to call options remains at a low level of 0.45 (below 0.5, bullish sentiment is dominant), and the implied volatility term structure is positively inclined. It indicates that the probability of an upward breakthrough in market expectations is higher.
In conclusion, the possibility of recovery needs to be evaluated in combination with the holding period. Short-term technical analysis indicates that RSI 42 has not reached the oversold critical value of 30, and the rebound may lag by 1-2 weeks. However, long-term holders (holding the coin for more than 155 days) currently account for 76.2%, and their average holding cost of $34,500 provides a margin of safety. Statistics show that the probability of achieving a profit with a holding period of over four years is 99.8%, and the standard deviation of the annualized return rate is 32%. The risk of dispersion can be reduced through regular investment strategies. Investors need to balance their tolerance for volatility with the target period.